Your Freedom Number is the total amount you need saved by retirement to live comfortably. Most calculators make you guess at it. This one helps you build it from the ground up using the 4% rule, adjusted for your real inputs.
1. Your Current Expenses
What do you spend TODAY? Start with your current monthly expenses. The Retirement Adjustment below will tune this for your retirement years.
What you spend per month right now on everything
Enter your current monthly spending by category. We'll multiply by 12 for the annual total, then the Retirement Adjustment below tunes it for your retirement years.
Rent or mortgage, property taxes, insurance, maintenance
Healthcare costs rise significantly in retirement
What makes retirement worth it
Subscriptions, hobbies, pets, gifts
Total Monthly$5,800
Most retirees spend 70-80% of what they spend now (no commute, kids grown, mortgage often paid). But healthcare goes UP, and travel might too. Adjust based on YOUR plans.
2. Guaranteed Income in Retirement
Every dollar of guaranteed income is a dollar your savings doesn't have to produce. This is why including these is critical.
Look it up at ssa.gov/myaccount. Average is around $1,800.
Many retirees work part-time for the first 5-10 years
Lower rate = higher Freedom Number but more safety. Higher rate = lower target but more risk of running out.
3. Your Starting Point
Where are you today, and what can you commit to each month? These three inputs plus your Freedom Number determine the annual return rate you need.
All retirement savings you have today (401k, IRA, brokerage, crypto)
How much you can realistically add each month
How long you have to build your nest egg
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Your Freedom Number and these three inputs determine this rate.
Your Freedom Number
$0
≈ $0 in today's purchasing power
Fill in the fields above to calculate your personalized Freedom Number.
Required Annual Return
...
Enter your savings and timeline above to see what return you need.
Inflation Assumption
3%
0%2%4%6%8%10%
What inflation does to your number
Inflation is the slow rise in prices over time. A dollar today does not buy what it bought 20 years ago. The same is true going forward: by the time you retire in 15 years, the dollars in your retirement account will buy less than they do now.
Why we show two return numbers
Your investment statement will report one return (for example, 21%). That is the number on paper.
But inflation eats into that growth. If your account grew 21% but prices went up 3%, only 18% of that growth actually bought you more in real life.
21%: what your investments need to grow on paper each year
18% after inflation: what your real buying power needs to grow
What inflation rate should you pick?
The government's official measure (CPI) usually says 2-3%
Many people believe real cost-of-living inflation, especially in housing, healthcare, and food, runs more like 6-10%
For a stress test, slide up to 10% and see what happens
Official CPI runs around 2 to 3 percent. Many people believe the real cost-of-living inflation in housing, healthcare, and food is closer to 6 to 10 percent. Slide higher to see what happens to your number when the dollar is debased.
Select assets to compare. 0 selected
Add any stock, ETF, or crypto already in the database
Risk vs Return Map — Every Asset at a Glance
Higher up = more growth. Further right = smaller worst-case drop. The shaded sweet spot shows assets that hit your required return AND kept their worst drawdown above −50%. Your selected assets show larger; the rest are the universe for context.
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Pick assets for the detailed comparisons
The map above shows every asset at once. Pick a few on the Overview tab to see their returns, bumpy-ride, and drawdown details side-by-side below.
Annualized Returns Comparison
The Bumpy Ride: How Wide Is the Range?
For any 12-month period during the selected timeframe, here's the best, worst, and average return each asset delivered. Wider bars mean wilder rides. The dot shows the average.
Maximum Drawdown (Worst Peak-to-Trough Decline)
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Pick assets to simulate
The DCA Simulator shows what your monthly investing would have produced if you'd been buying a specific asset all along. Head to the Overview tab and check the assets you want to simulate.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Simulator
What if you had invested $500/month consistently? This tab shows what your actual monthly investing would have produced, as a visual journey and in exact dollar figures.
DCA Growth Over Time
What $500/month invested consistently would have grown to. Each line's final value is labeled. Y-axis uses log scale so high and moderate performers are both visible.
Mix Conservative + Aggressive Buckets
You don't need every dollar earning the same return to hit your Freedom Number. Most catch-up plans split between steady assets that compound predictably and aggressive ones that can outperform but with bigger drops. Set your target returns and use the slider to see how the blend stacks up against your required return.
Conservative
40%
Aggressive
60%
% / yr
% / yr
ConservativeTarget: 7%
Allocation40%
From initial$0
Monthly$0
Assets in your universe with similar return profile:
AggressiveTarget: 20%+
Allocation60%
From initial$0
Monthly$0
Assets in your universe that hit or exceed this target:
Blended Expected Return
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Your Required Return
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Adjust the slider above to see your blend.
About these numbers
The green % next to each asset is the 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) — what the asset annualized over the most recent 10 years of monthly closing prices. Newer assets (IBIT, SOL) fall back to the longest full-year history available. These are the same CAGRs you'll see on the Overview and Compare tabs.
The blended expected return is a weighted average: (Conservative % × Conservative target) + (Aggressive % × Aggressive target). So moving the slider changes the blend by shifting the weights, and changing a target return input changes the rate itself. The asset CAGRs shown next to each ticker are not part of this calculation — they're a sanity check showing which tracked assets historically performed near each target. Changing a target return input also re-filters its bucket; the slider does not.
Data source: Yahoo Finance, refreshed automatically every Monday at 06:00 UTC. Prices update once a week.
My Current Portfolio
Enter what you actually own today to see your real allocation. The tool uses current prices to calculate each asset's dollar value and percentage of your total portfolio.
Portfolio Builder
Drag the sliders to build your target allocation. See how blending assets affects your expected return and Catch-Up Fit Score.
Total Allocation100%
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Pick assets to backtest
This view answers the question: "If I had bought this asset on any random month in history and held it for N years, how often would I have made money?" Pick assets on the Overview tab and they'll show up here.
Holding Period Backtest
For every possible starting month in the data, we measure what happened if you'd bought the asset and held it for N years. The pass rate shows what percentage of those rolling windows ended in profit. The worst case shows the most painful window you could have bought into. This tests whether the "just hold for X years" rule actually holds up.
Asset
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
4 Years
5 Years
7 Years
10 Years
Each cell shows: % of rolling windows that ended profitable (sample size in parens). A "—" means the asset doesn't have enough history for that holding period.
Worst Rolling Window By Holding Period
The single worst entry point in the data, for each holding length. If you'd bought at exactly the wrong moment and held for N years, this is what you'd have lived through.
Asset
Worst 1Y
Worst 2Y
Worst 3Y
Worst 4Y
Worst 5Y
Worst 7Y
Worst 10Y
Negative = held at a loss at the end of the period. Positive = even the worst entry would have made you money. Hover a cell for the exact start and end dates.
Don't sell unless you have to.
These rules are tools for when life requires harvesting, not a discipline to apply mechanically. If you are more than 5 years from your Freedom Number day and don't need this money, let it run. Compounding does the heavy lifting on a catch-up timeline, and every sale outside an IRA is a taxable event.
Reach for these rules when you actually need them.
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Your Freedom Number day
Loading your timeline...
Your Numbers
Bitcoin cost basis + annual income need
Rules 1 and 4 need to know your average price paid for Bitcoin and how much you need to live on per year. Enter once. These numbers stay private to your browser.
$
$
Rule 1
The Doubling Rule
One rule. One trigger. No charts.
Every time Bitcoin doubles from your last harvest price, sell enough to cover one or two years of living expenses. Then your next trigger doubles again. You never have to predict the top.
Enter your cost basis above to activate this rule.
Rule 2
Percentage Allocation
Self-balancing system
Decide what percentage of your investable net worth Bitcoin should be. When your actual allocation exceeds that target by 25% (e.g., a 40% target becomes a 50% trigger), rebalance the excess back to your target. Pure math, no emotion. Use investable net worth only. Not home equity. Not your car. Not anything you would not actually sell to rebalance.
%
$
Stocks, ETFs, cash, retirement accounts, other liquid assets. Do not include home equity or other illiquid wealth.
Enter your numbers above to see your allocation status.
Rule 3
200-Week Moving Average / Mayer Multiple
Bitcoin only
The Mayer Multiple is today's price divided by its 200-week moving average. Historically every Bitcoin cycle top has reached 3x to 5x the 200-week moving average. As Bitcoin matures, peaks have been getting lower.
Mayer Multiple Today
—
Loading...
Computing 200-week moving average...
< 1.2 Below trend
1.2 - 1.8 Normal range
1.8 - 2.4 Stretched
2.4 - 3.0 Hot zone
> 3.0 Historic sell zone
Computing...
Rule 4
Calendar Harvest
For people drawing down on Bitcoin
In any year you need income, you must sell something if Bitcoin spent any part of the year at least 50% above your cost basis. Removes the "what if it goes higher" trap.
Enter your cost basis above to activate this rule.
Rule 5
Ladder Selling Strategy
For altcoins, narrative stocks, exit-positions
For positions you've decided to fully exit, sell in tranches based on how many times your money you've made (the "multiple"). The exact ladder depends on the asset's risk tier. Stocks follow thesis-driven rules, not price-driven ones.
Low-cap crypto (high risk)
Sell 25% at 10x from your cost basis
Sell 25% at 15x
Sell 25% at 20x
Sell 25% at 25x or at clear cycle top
Blue-chip crypto (ETH, SOL)
Sell 25% at 5x from your cost basis
Sell 25% at 8x
Sell 25% at 12x
Hold or sell remainder at cycle top
Narrative stocks (NVDA, TSLA)
Thesis-driven, not price-driven. Sell when:
• The investment thesis materially breaks
• Valuation becomes extreme
• Position exceeds target % allocation
• In an IRA: rebalance freely (no tax event)
Reminder. These rules apply only to positions you've decided to fully exit. For positions you intend to keep (especially Bitcoin), the core thesis stands: don't sell unless you have to.
Important Disclaimer: This tool is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All data shown is historical and should not be used as the sole basis
for investment decisions. The Catch-Up Fit Score is an educational metric, not a recommendation.
Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
Built for The Great Catch-Up program by J. Scott MacMillan.